"Tips, Themes & Things" Coaching Essays

We all know that there is more to coaching than just running great practices. So, to help you develop your own strategies for successful soccer, SoccerROM posts an in-depth essay on a new topic each month. These articles are provided by the SoccerROM staff and a number of other prominent coaches from around the US and the world, and will discuss everything from technical teaching points to team tactics.

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When are Goals Scored?

by Robert Parr

Soccer, like all games, has a rhythm of its own that dictates the tempo and momentum of the competition. This rhythm results from the actions of two opposing teams that each seek a common outcome -- to score more goals than the other side. Of course, as one team pushes harder in attack, it necessarily sacrifices some elements of defense, creating goal-scoring opportunities for the opposition. If you want to truly understand the game, then it seems reasonable to start by asking a simple question: When are goals scored?

To answer this question, I examined the results of several recent international competitions. Using the match summaries provided by FIFA (at http://www.fifa.com/tournaments/index.html), I created the following chart that illustrates the goals scored during the 2008 Men's Olympic Tournament and the 2007 Men's U-20 World Cup.

There were a total of 84 matches played in these two competitions, which produced a total of 210 goals (2.50 goals per game). I divided each game into 15 minute increments, and mapped all goals scored during each game into one of these six segments (as shown by the red bars above). Since most of these games were concluded after 90 minutes of regulation time, I ignored any goals scored during overtimes in the knockout rounds, and treated those games as if they had ended during regulation time. Further, since the third and sixth segments of each game included some "extra time", I did a separate analysis (shown here in grey) that excluded any goals scored during this added time to keep the comparison consistent.

From this chart, we see a distinct pattern that defines the underlying rhythm of each game. Goals are least likely to be scored during the first 15 minutes of the match (with less than a 9% probability). Goal scoring roughly doubles throughout the middle 60 minutes of each match (with a 17% probability of scoring a goal during any 15 minute segment), and then nearly triples during the final 15 minutes when compared with the opening segment (a 24% probability). The number of goals scored increases nearly 50% in the second half when compared with the first half.

Further, although goals scored in added time were clearly important to the outcome of these matches, they appear to have been scored at rates consistent with the segment to which they belonged. For example, if you assume that extra time in the first half averaged just under 2 minutes, then you would expect 4 goals to have been scored in first half added time throughout these tournaments (which is what happened). If you assume that extra time in the second half averaged 2.67 minutes, then you would expect the 8 goals that were tallied in time added at the end of regulation.

Given this data, what can we learn about the underlying nature of the game and the tactics employed to meet the challenges presented by each match? First, it appears that the frequently-heard discussion of a "feeling out" period during the first 10-15 minutes of the game does, in fact, exist. In high-pressure competitions such as these, teams tend to be somewhat risk-averse, and thus emphasize defensive play during the opening stanza. With such a focus on "safety first", it shouldn't be a great surprise to see fewer goals scored at this stage of the match.

In addition, teams typically find it more difficult to maintain their defensive organization as fatigue sets in over the course of a match. As fitness breaks down, the resulting technical and tactical mistakes can lead to more frequent goal-scoring opportunities. Combine this factor with the prevailing tactic of holding substitutions until late in the second half, and you allow players who are rested to expose points of failure among opposing players who are fatigued from battling through a full 90 minutes of play.

To determine if these goal-scoring cycles hold true across gender lines, I repeated the analysis using two recent women's competitions. The results from these tournaments (the 2008 Women's Olympic Tournament and 2007 Women's World Cup) are illustrated in the following chart:

There were a total of 58 games played in these two tournaments, yielding a total of 177 goals (3.05 goals per game). Again, I ignored any goals scored during overtimes in the knockout rounds, and performed a separate analysis that excluded any goals scored during added time.

Surprisingly, we can see that the underlying pattern of goal-scoring is sharply different from that found in the men's game. In the women's competitions, goals were distributed essentially uniformly throughout the first half, with just under a 13% probability of scoring a goal in any of the first three segments. However, goals doubled in the fourth segment (to a 26% probability), and then tapered to an 18% probability (1.4 times the first-half rate) for the remaining two segments of the match. Goals were over 60% more likely in the second half when compared with the first half.

The women's tournaments also exhibited one other surprising difference when compared with the men's competitions. Although scoring in extra time during the first half appears to have been consistent with expectations (2 goals were scored, with 2.7 predicted), it appears to have accelerated in time added at the end of the second half. The women notched 8 goals in extra time (versus the 5 expected), which is more consistent with the scoring rate found at the start of the second half.

Since the laws of the game are the same without respect to gender, how can we account for the very different distribution of goals between the men's and women's games? There is no way to know for sure without further studies, but I can propose a few possible explanations that should be considered in future examinations.

First, it would appear that players and coaches in the women's game are less risk-averse than their counterparts in the men's game. The initial "feeling out" period does not seem to be a factor in the women's game, and teams seem more willing to take offensive chances from the very start of each game. Tactical formations also reflect this difference in risk tolerance. The men's game frequently employs a single striker, and three-fronts are rare; in the women's game, one rarely sees a competitive team with fewer than two frontrunners, and three-fronts are common.

The half-time interval also appears to have a significant effect on the outcome of top-level women's games. Presumably, the surge in scoring at the start of the second half has no relationship to fitness, since all players should be well-rested at this stage of the game. Is this the byproduct of a tactical element (disparities in coaching experience, for example) or perhaps a psychological one (such as male and female players reacting differently to the input of coaches and teammates during the half-time)? Again, without further study we can't know for sure, but clearly coaches of female players should work to take advantage of this natural bias toward scoring goals early in the second half of the game.

Without question, the women's game at the international level is at an earlier stage of maturity than the men's game. Few nations provide the same quality of coaching and training opportunities to their women's programs as they do for their men, which leads to a greater reliance by many teams on athleticism and individual skill (rather than team tactics) to win games. Consider, for instance, that the men's World Cup hasn't averaged over 3 goals per game since 1958, when scoring dropped to 3.60 goals per game from the previous record low of 3.89 set at the first World Cup in 1930. It seems likely that as more nations invest in their women's programs and place greater emphasis on "getting results" from their women's national teams, defensive tactics will increase in importance and teams may become as risk-averse as their male counterparts.

About the Author The co-creator of SoccerROM, Robert Parr holds a USSF 'A' license and a USSF National Youth Coaching license. He is currently the Director of Coaching and WPSL Head Coach for the Puerto Rico Capitals FC, the first international franchise to compete in the Women's Premier Soccer League. From 2003-2008, he was the Head Women's Soccer Coach at Georgia College & State University and also coached for the Georgia State Soccer Association Olympic Development Program. From 1995-2002, Robert was the Director of Training for the American Soccer Club "Eagles" youth program in Austin, Texas. He also served as the South Texas Men's State Team Coach from 1996-1998, and a South Texas YSA State Staff Coach for both the Olympic Development Program (1991-1999) and the Coaching Education Program (1991-2002). From 1989 until 1995, Robert was the Head Coach of the University of Texas Men's Soccer Team, where he led the program to a National Collegiate Club Championship in 1990, three other National Tournament appearances, and an overall record of 80-25-16. You can reach Robert at robert@soccerrom.com.